Each of these variables changes the chances of getting a particular mod with a particular primary stat, which is the main purpose of buying from the mod shipment. The calculations used assume that the chance of getting all quality levels are equal and the chance of getting all Mk levels are equal (which may not be the case). Additionally, a drop rate of 50% is assumed since it was said that the mod drop rate will be greater than the shard drop rate (which is 33%). Despite anecdotal accounts that the drop rate is closer to 40%, we assumed 50% for the calculations. Chasing after primary stats, while it may be difficult, can prove to be worthwhile (though expensive), but chasing after secondary stats is a fool game and even more expensive due to the credits that needs to be spent in order to get lvl 1 quality B and below to quality A to see all the secondary stats. That being said, secondary stats are being ignored. Based on these, the percent chance to get a specific mod or better is:
You will notice that the Mk 1, 2 and 3 have the same chance for each quality level. This is because if you so Tier 3 and a mod drops, you have a 100% chance of getting a Mk 3 or better. If you do a Tier 2, you will have a 100% chance of getting a Mk 2 or better, and if you do a Tier 1, you will have a 100% chance to get a Mk 1 or better. Thus, the only two Mk levels that have less than a 100% chance is Mk 4 (which has a 66% chance) and Mk 5 (which has a 33%). So, if you are doing Tier 1 for Mk 1, Tier 2 for Mk 2 and Tier 3 for Mk 3 and above, what is the cantina energy, on average, needed to get your particular mod:
Obviously more cantina energy would need to be spent to get a specific arrow, triangle or plus sign compared to a square or diamond because the latter two only have 1 possibly primary stat. The difficulty of getting specific primary stats for the arrow, triangle and plus sign begin to be seen when you look at the cantina energy needed to farm them. To put it into context, let's assume the average player buys 1 refresh of cantina energy a day (100 crystals), so that means the player will use 240 cantina energy daily. Based on that, how many crystals and days would be needed for a player to get the mod...
When you compared the prices in the mod shipments to the estimated crystal cost, you will see that the costs of the mods are often too much, but not always! One of the mods in particular that is worthwhile is a Quality A Mk 5 Arrow mod of your choosing with a Speed primary, a mod that is dominant in arena right now. Based on the numbers, it would cost you 8400 crystals over 84 days (with 1 refresh daily) to get that mod. In the mod shipment, that will cost you about 3700 crystals.
Seems like it might be worthwhile (even though it is still pretty expensive). An argument can be made though that if you spend those 3700 crystals, you would miss out on a lot of the extra credits and cantina shipments that come with that. So lets compare that...
If you spent 8400 crystals on 1 refresh per day and spent everything on Tier 3 Challenge, during that day, during that time period you would have 1260 tier 3 challenge attempts. Let's compare that to if you had 8400 crystals, but you spent 3700 to buy a Mk5 Quality A mod and used the remaining 4700 over the course of 84 days to farm Jedi Knight Anakin,..
Over the course of 84 days, by farming the Tier 3 shipments, you would have 7784 more cantina shipment tokens, which is ~97 more shards of a cantina shipment character, you would have 2.576 million more credits, 278 more attempts at getting training droids, you would have about 630 mods ranging between mk3 to mk5 of different qualities all of the mod set you were farming, but you would have 327 less shards of a cantina energy character (JKA in this case), which is more than enough to 7* him from 0 total shards.
Is it worth it to buy a mod from the mod shipments? I would use the following table as a guild to see whether or not the mod is overpriced first:
If the value of the mod is more than the value on this table, DO NOT buy it. This will be most of the time except for the high quality high Mk arrow, triangle and plus sign mods since they have a lot of primary stat options and usually you are chasing one. If you DO NOT care about the primary stat, never buy. Mod shipments are worth it only if you are looking for a particular mod with a particular primary stat.
But what if a Mk 5 Arrow Health set Mod with Speed primary shows up for 3700 crystals... Should I buy it?
You have to ask yourself, "how much are character shards worth for you?" First off, this is all RNG and the numbers given are an average. There is a chance you could get the mod in your first attempt, there is also the chance that you have to do tier 3 for 100 days instead of 84 to get the mod... there is no telling. The buying of the mod guarantees it now, you dont have to play the RNG game, and you get to continue farming cantina characters. Downside is that the certainty of getting a mod comes with a price - cantina shipment tokens leading to about 100 character shards, and about 2.5 million in credits... both over 84 days though. Whether or not it is worth it to you is a decision you have to make.
I hope that this at least makes you see that 3700 crystals for a mod actually isn't overpriced, if it is the right mod. I grant that most are overpriced and you should not touch them, but by using the table above, you can decide whether or not there is even a consideration to be made. After that, it is up to you whether or not the cost is worth the trade off (guarantee and cantina node character shards vs more credits, more cantina shipment tokens, more training droids, but uncertainty of drop) is worth it for you.
I hope this gave you all something to think about and I would love your feedback.
No comments:
Post a Comment